South American

It would not be to be strange that some voices within this field begin to conjecture about a possible influence of Venezuelan official circles in inclined sectors of the CRAF to their line to release to all the hostages. Stick and carrot before the CRAF Reconciliation between presidents of Colombia and Venezuela has done showing importance of commerce between both (the second after that there is with the USA), the same that borders $US 6.000 million. Also a new international work considers; a railroad that would unite Venezuela with the Pacific Ocean and that could extend towards the South cone or Central America. However, between both it must have there are some negotiation around the CRAF, the same that will not be so much the public. Both governors would want to go towards the disarmament of the oldest guerrilla of the West. However, Uribe looks for to humiliate them and to squash them to consolidate to an economic model that of security and incentives to the private capital. Chvez, however, would want that the CRAF legalizes itself but without to be defeated and to be able to become an electoral force of democratizante left (or partly of this one) since it has happened with those who before was labeled like terrorists in America Central or Africa of the South. Both will coordinate for runa tandem luck.

Uribe is the stick and Chvez is the carrot. However, the aims that have Caracas and Bogota are not the same. Uribe would want to repeat the Peruvian way so that the defeat of the subversion is hard and allows to an historical cycle of governments pro-TLC. Chvez, on the contrary, wants an exit that implies social and political concessions to the guerrilla in order abrir the possibilities so that Colombia stops being South American rightist rock and from passage to a later government of centroizquierda. Meanwhile the present reconciliation between these two conflicting neighbors will return to have its crises. At the moment to both it agrees to them to both for internal and international reasons. If today both look for the hug to improve their puntajes in sights to elections (new presidential in Colombia and the regional ones of November in Venezuela), these same elections could help to that both use the nationalism and the danger of the neighbor to relaunch themselves. Again the CRAF could be another cause of a crisis and these, despite many observers and although it could be in crisis, still have many traditions, bases and militants and can want to continue arousing new problems in the continental diplomacy.